Sense and nonsense of counting cards
One of the reasons for gamblers being so inefficient in casinos is that they’re superstitious.
When things are being determined purely by change the human mind tries to find rational solutions for them.
People starts seeing paterns who aren’t there or who are created by change, and they will try to exploit them. When with roulette the ball ended up ten out of ten times on a red number, the change that the next one will be red still is the same as the change for a black number. Card-counters also have to fight against lots of forms of superstition. Because there is no actual agreement inside the group about some things being superstition., we’ll pay some attention to it.
Before the game is started the cards lie in a pallet-form on table. After the first time being shuffle some cards stick together. Because of that the card-order can be a little different in the first pack. Studies have shown that when several groups of high and low cards are stocked together that can have slight effect on the changes(not more than several tends of a percent).
It’s recommended to take an extra 0,5% margin on the expected advantage in the first pack just to be sure, and so you’ll raise your bet only if the true count is 3 or higher.
Often the result of a session is changed by the events that take place in the final pack. It’s annoying to lose your profit in the last pack and go home with loss. Yet there isn’t mathematically an optimal stop-moment. Players who always stop when they’ve got a bit of profit will win lots of time, but sometimes they’ll lose heavily. The problem is that people frequently plays short sessions. Card-counters play a game with a positive profit-expectation. Every pack that’s being played has the is expected to make a bit of profit. Short term changes disrupt this image, there’s nothing you can do about it. The only thing you can do is play a lot and play good, so you’ll get your advantage on the long term.
‘Blessed’ tables and boxes
Gamblers often talk about tables or boxes that are ‘blessed’, that means that people are winning a lot because the bank often get busted. Statistic this is very normal. The bank get busted one out of four times, So it’s very normal for a bank to get busted five times in a row. Studies has indicated that you can’t get any useful information out of this. If the bank If the bank has been busted five times in a row the change that he’ll bust himself for the sixth time is just as big as always. The same goes for blessed boxes. If a player wins a bet the change for winning the next bet isn’t influenced by the result. It’s recommended to ignore these situations. The truth is always worse than you would expect.
Size of the advantage
Card-counters sometimes make the mistake to over-estimate their changes. They watch how other people are winning time upon time, while they lose when they play high if the counting says so. The change for a player to win equals 49/100, he plays with a disadvantage of 2%. The card-counter plays with a advantage of 2%. On the short term there practically is no difference. On the long term this little difference is getting more important. This statistical effect is known as ‘the law of the big numbers’. It’s the reason that players who go often to the casino on the long term always lose. The situation for the card-counter looks better then it is. An average advantage of 1% is more realistic, and only 1 out of 6 situations is a favourable situation.
Long periods of losing are often explained with that the casino is cheating. There is no example known that one of the Holland Casino’s ever has cheated with BlackJack against a player. Occasionally incidents do happen. These are sometimes in favour of the casino and sometimes in favour of the player. There can’t be found any systemic in it. We also think that the most of the foreign casinos and online casinos play fair. The illegal casinos in the Netherlands form an exception. There are several strong clues that in some occasions there is being cheated. Therefore we don’t recommend playing in these casinos. The advantage which card-counting offers is nothing compared with the disadvantage that cheating causes. Therefore it’s advisable to leave a casino if you suspect them from cheating. This is how casinos can cheat with BlackJack:
– Making mistakes which gives the player a disadvantage(for example with pay out, changing money, counting the points of a hand); its also a good case to keep an eye out for the handling of the dealer and where necessary to correct him.
– The player at the last box makes his bet to late; when the dealer has arrived at his box, he looks what the first card for that box is. If it’s a small one he gives the player the card. If it’s a ten or an ace then he tells the player that he has made his bet too late and isn’t playing along. After which the dealer takes that card as fist card of the bank.
– The dealer already draws the first card out of the pack and looks inconspicuous at it. If the card is good for the second card for the bank he tries to keep it for the bank by rushing through the boxes. If the card isn’t useful as second card for the bank he tries to convince players to buy another card.
– There is being worked with marked cards; if the dealer wants to take a card out of the pack which isn’t good for the bank, then he takes the second one(dealing seconds). A good trained dealer is capable to do this without someone noticing it. There can also be worked with a player in the last box who works for the casino. He is signed when cards are bad for the bank and need to be bought out.
– A couple of tens and aces are removed from the game, and there can be some small cards been added. The effect of this is that the card-counter is going to bet in favourable situations, while they’re in fact unfavourable. This form of cheating can be discovered by card-counters. The running count needs to be average zero, when the twinge-card has been reached. When there’re more small cards then big ones in the game, the count would be average positive when the twinge-card has been reached.
– There’s being worked with a special pack, where a couple of cards are being hidden in a compartment. The dealer knows the value of these cards and uses them when he needs them.
– There’s being worked with special cards where the little cards are a bit wider in the centre and to the ends they end up tapering. While the tens and aces are a bit smaller in the centre and get wider toward the end. After shuffling the dealer grabs some cards in the centre with his left hand and which his right hand he grabs the cards at the end and pulls the cards out of each other. The result is that the in the left hand the dealer has all of the small cards and in his right he has all the big ones. By keeping these separate half of a slop will exist only out of small cards and a half of only big ones. It’s easy to understand why this isn’t good for the player, both for the base-strategy-user and the card-counter.